PUBLICATIONS & REPORTS

Contents Introduction

This paper examines China’s industrialization in the light of the Lewis growth model. It begins with a perusal of Lewis’ own writings and those of Fei and Ranis in order to clarify certain assumptions and predictions of the Lewis model. The paper then reviews previous applications of the Lewis model in studying industrialization in other countries, and notes the methodological problems that arise in this regard. In applying the Lewis model to study China’s industrialization, the paper focuses on the dynamic relationship between wage and marginal product of labor in the traditional sector. For this purpose, the paper estimates a production function for China’s agriculture sector using province level data and compares the estimated marginal product of labor with the corresponding wage of this sector. The results show that the marginal product has been increasing (from below) at a faster pace than the wage, as is predicted by the Lewis model. The results indicate that China as a whole is steadily moving toward the Lewis Turning Point.