12/15(火)アジア成長研究所・北九州市立大学経済学部共催AGIセミナーを開催いたします

※※このセミナーは終了致しました。※※

当研究所では、アジア研究に携わる研究者を招聘し、AGIセミナーを開催しております。

◆AGIセミナー◆

日　時

平成27年12月15日（火）15：30～17：30

場所

アジア成長研究所　6階　会議室
（北九州市小倉北区大手町11－4　北九州市大手町ビル「ムーブ」6F）

参加料：無料

使用言語

【発表】日本語　【資料】英語

発表者

慶應義塾大学経済学部教授　櫻川昌哉氏

タイトル

Allocation puzzle and a new theory of capital flows

講演概要

This paper builds a theory of capital flows that explains the allocation of more capital in capital-exporting countries than capital-importing countries, called the “allocation puzzle”. We build a model of two countries populated by overlapping generations that are identical except for a country’s financial depth, captured by the strength of borrowing constraints. A country with the stronger borrowing constraint runs capital outflows but the growth in investment in the transition from autarky to globalization when the saving rate of that country increases along with globalization. The positive correlation between saving and investment is reminiscent of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Even with the difference in financial depth, globalization is followed in the long run by capital allocation featured by either divergence or convergence. The dynamics of capital are cyclical in the short run. The persistence in the difference in financial depth and the rise in the saving rates are sufficient to explain the recent globalization featured by global imbalance, convergence, allocation puzzle, and saving gluts. We conduct some counterfactual experiments when there were no Asian crisis, and when the China’s saving rate was not extraordinary. These simulations provide interesting implications on allocation puzzle, the global imbalance and the world interest rate.

更新日：2015年11月24日
カテゴリ：セミナー