2025.05.14（水）AGIセミナー「Understanding Korea’s Ultra-Low Birth Rate: A Structural Analysis of Marriage, Women’s Education, and Economic Growth」（オンライン）

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日時

令和7年5月14日（水）14：00～16：00
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講師

韓国・高麗大学 名誉特別教授
LEE, Jong-Wha 氏

テーマ

Understanding Korea’s Ultra-Low Birth Rate: A Structural Analysis of Marriage, Women’s Education, and Economic Growth

要旨

Over the past half-century, the Republic of Korea has experienced steep declines in fertility and marriage rates, accompanied by rising incomes, higher levels of women’s education, increased female labour force participation and mounting work–life balance pressures. This study examines these concurrent trends using microdata analysis and a structural macroeconomic model. Survival model estimates from longitudinal data (1998–2022) reveal that higher women’s college attainment and rising housing costs reduce the likelihood of marriage, while increased women’s labour force participation and rising child education costs also lower the probability of having a child. Additionally, higher income and homeownership enhances the likelihood of both marriage and childbirth. Building on these findings, this study develops an overlapping generations model incorporating endogenous family formation and women’s time allocation, within the context of gender inequality in households and labour markets. Simulation results suggest that policies aimed at reducing child-rearing and education costs, while promoting gender equality at home and in labour markets could increase the fertility rate from the current 0.72 to as high as 1.18. The simulation results further reveal that, over the past 30 years, along with changes in women’s education, income and labour market participation, rising costs of child-rearing, child education and marriage have significantly contributed to the decline in marriage and fertility rates.

使用言語

報告・資料ともに英語

講師略歴

Jong-Wha Lee is a Distinguished Professor Emeritus at Korea University. He previously served as Chief Economist at the ADB and worked as an economist at the IMF. He also served as Senior Adviser for International Economic Affairs to the former President of South Korea. Lee has taught at the Australian National University, Columbia University, Harvard University, and Peking University. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University.

（韓国・高麗大学名誉特別教授。アジア開発銀行（ADB）チーフエコノミスト、国際通貨基金（IMF）エコノミストを務めた経歴を持ち、韓国元大統領のもとで国際経済シニアアドバイザーの役割も務めた。これまでにオーストラリア国立大学、コロンビア大学、ハーバード大学、北京大学にて講義。ハーバード大学より経済学博士号を取得。）

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更新日：2025年4月17日
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